Lagos: Foreign Affairs analysts have expressed the view that Nigeria’s foreign policy under President Bola Tinubu since his assumption of office on May 29, 2023, has been a mixed bag of the old and the new.
According to News Agency of Nigeria, it has been a continuity of the nation’s traditional foreign policy principles since independence, and a fresh focus on what is dubbed the ‘4D Diplomacy Strategy’ or ‘Tinubu Doctrine.’ Traditionally, Nigeria’s foreign policy principle since independence on Oct. 1, 1960, has been Afrocentric, placing topmost priority on African affairs. It has also been traditionally operated in three concentric circles of priority: West Africa, Africa, and the rest of the world, in that priority order.
This has been predicated on the backdrop of Nigeria’s status as the undisputed Giant of Africa, and a Big Brother nation-state. Thus, Tinubu’s foreign policy thrust in the past two years is viewed as deliberately tailored to reinforce Nigeria’s traditional Afrocentric principle, spiced with some fresh ambitions. The nation’s foreign policy approach has notably been prioritising West Africa, that is, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), as well as Africa or the African Union (AU).
President Tinubu’s foreign policy in the past two years has been deliberately proactive and ambitious, tailored to strengthen Nigeria’s global influence and reposition it as a continental superpower, and attract foreign investments. In his inaugural speech, President Tinubu had clearly outlined his administration’s foreign policy objectives. The President had underscored the priority of his administration’s diplomacy to focus on peace, stability, and collective prosperity within the West African sub-region and the African continent.
In a bold move that kept many foreign policy observers busy thinking, he announced the new administration’s foreign policy approach called the ‘4-D Diplomacy Strategy.’ The 4-D acronym stands for: Democracy, Development, Demography, and Diaspora. They are regarded as the President’s flagship foreign policy priorities.
Under Democracy, the foreign policy approach seeks to promote and encourage the practice of democracy in West Africa, Africa, and the rest of the world to consolidate democratic gains. It also focuses on promoting and defending democratic principles within the West African sub-region, and across the African continent. For instance, Tinubu’s initial strong stance against the military coup in Niger Republic shortly into his assumption of office as Chairman of the ECOWAS Authority of Heads of State and Government, underscores this.
Under Development, the foreign policy approach has focused on enhancing Africa’s development, halting dependency, and exploiting opportunities. The approach seeks to leverage the dawn of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to boost foreign trade and attract foreign direct investment to Nigeria. It strategically focuses on Economic Diplomacy, emphasising the driving of economic development by fostering foreign trade, and creating economic opportunities for Nigerians.
Under Demography, Tinubu’s foreign policy focus seeks to harness the potentials of Nigeria’s vibrant, large and youthful population. The approach seeks to leverage Nigeria’s demographic advantage as a source of human capital, a consumer market for national development, and a strength in foreign relations.
The Diaspora approach recognises the significant role of the Nigerian diaspora community in the nation’s economic growth. It factors in the crucial role of diaspora remittances in the country’s economy with a view to tapping them for national economic development. This foreign policy thrust seeks to always deliberately engage with the Nigerian diaspora community worldwide for the nation’s overall economic growth.
Amb. Yusuf Tuggar, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, while reinforcing the Tinubu administration’s 4-D foreign policy thrust, stressed that Nigeria’s current foreign policy has been consistently Afrocentric. Tuggar explained that this was driven through a three concentric circle application, aimed at achieving economic growth, peace and security within West Africa, and Africa at large.
Delivering a keynote address as the Chairman of the Authority of ECOWAS Heads of State and Government at ECOWAS’ 50th Anniversary in Lagos on May 28, Tinubu reinforced his foreign policy focus on strengthening regional integration. The President also reaffirmed Nigeria’s commitment to sustaining ECOWAS for the benefit of posterity.
Tinubu has been given a thumbs up for not just reinforcing Nigeria’s traditional Afrocentric foreign policy thrust but redefining it under the auspices of the 4D agenda. His foreign policy focus is viewed as a success and being consistent with the nation’s traditional three concentric circles, which prioritises West Africa, Africa and rest of the world, and a non-aligned disposition.
Gen. Yakubu Gowon (rtd), former Nigerian Head of State and founding father of ECOWAS, for instance, lauded Tinubu’s West African foreign policy focus, for uniting the bloc under his leadership. By promptly rallying ECOWAS leaders together and deploying diplomacy, instead of use of force during the Niger coup, and lifting the sanctions earlier imposed on the Sahel states, he said, Tinubu succeeded in keeping ECOWAS together.
At the continental level, Tinubu took a bold step toward curbing the surging scourge of terrorism and violent conflicts sweeping across the Sahel region to the rest of Africa. The President hosted a two-day African High-Level Counter-Terrorism Summit in Abuja, attended by African presidents, AU President, UN Deputy Secretary General, among others. The Summit aimed at precipitating African-led and African-owned solutions against terrorism; strengthening regional response to terrorism threats.
At the global level, the central pillar of Tinubu’s foreign policy has been economic diplomacy or the attraction of foreign investment for economic development, as earlier mentioned earlier under the 4Ds. The President has consistently promoted Nigeria as ‘open for business’ and embarked on numerous strategic diplomatic trips, which attracted multi-billion dollar foreign investment commitments.
These commitments include deals from Indian firms during the G-20 Summit in Delhi, and expansion deals with Indorama for petrochemical and fertilizer plant expansion, among others. Another Tinubu foreign policy milestone is the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline project, which he inherited from his predecessor and bolstered.
President Tinubu also highlighted Nigeria’s foreign policy priorities at the global level during his maiden outing at the UN General Assembly in Sept. 2023, in a speech that aligned with his foreign policy focus. He urged the global community to treat Africa as a priority, affirm democratic governance as the best guarantor of sovereign will, and urgently address the challenges of terrorism and violent extremism spreading across Africa.
There have however been criticisms regarding the effectiveness of Tinubu’s foreign policy decisions in directly benefiting the average Nigerian, and concerns about potential strained relationships with some international partners due to domestic policies. Some analysts have pointed out the challenge of aligning Tinubu’s foreign policy successes with domestic economic realities, arguing that the prevalence of domestic challenges eclipse what is regarded as robust diplomatic milestones.
Nonetheless, the President has, no doubt, matched his inaugural speech with action in implementing the administration’s foreign policy, dangling carrot and stick, barking and biting, and blowing hot and cold, where necessary. Tinubu’s foreign policy has clearly focused on promoting regional stability; economic diplomacy; and leveraging Nigeria’s demographic and diaspora strengths to enhance Nigeria’s economic growth and global standing.